Only two of more than 1,000 newly opened pizzerias closed within their first 12 months this year, according to fresh research from Datassential. The report, which looked at various cuisine segments across the restaurant industry, found that first-year pizza restaurants had the lowest failure rate.
The findings fly in the face of long-held myths. For decades, operators have repeated the statistic that 90% of restaurants fail in their first year. But Datassential, which tracks more than 700,000 restaurants nationwide through its “One” platform, found a far rosier picture.
Datassential has been tracking first-year restaurant failures since 2018. The research firm found, pre-pandemic, that industrywide first-year failure rates were hovering below 6%. Closures spiked during the height of COVID-19, doubling in 2021 and 2022—when the figure peaked at 12.3%—but have since plummeted. “While COVID-19 temporarily doubled these rates in 2021–2022, the industry has bounced back stronger than ever,” the report said.
Related: 72-Year-Old Pizzeria Shuts Down, Owners Cite ‘Uphill Climb,’ Negative Feedback
How the U.S. Restaurant Failure Rate Has Changed Over Time (Source: Datassential)
| Year | First-Year Restaurant Failure Rate | Year | First-Year Restaurant Failure Rate | |
| 2018 | 4.7% | 2022 | 10% | |
| 2019 | 5.6% | 2023 | 9.3% | |
| 2020 | 5.1% | 2024 | 4.7% | |
| 2021 | 12.3% | 2025 | 0.9% |
Pizza has proven especially resilient. Quick-service and casual dining restaurants each saw about a 1% first-year failure rate this year. Midscale concepts came in at 0.6%, and fast casual at 0.5%. But pizzerias beat them all, with just two known first-year closures across the entire country.
By comparison, fine-dining restaurants had the highest failure rate in 2025 at 4.9%. Steakhouses, African concepts and Italian restaurants also saw higher relative closure rates, though each segment accounted for far fewer openings overall.
The study also looked beyond the first year, where one can see the fingerprints of long-held industry myths: Five-year failure rates once topped 30%. In 2019, for example, 32.8% of restaurants failed by year five.
Restaurant Failure Rates For Restaurants at 5 Years of Operation (Source: Datassential)
| Year | First-Year Restaurant Failure Rate | Year | First-Year Restaurant Failure Rate | |
| 2018 | 31.3% | 2022 | 24.9% | |
| 2019 | 32.8% | 2023 | 14.8% | |
| 2020 | 30.2% | 2024 | 5.1% | |
| 2021 | 31.9% | 2025 | 0.9% |
For pizzeria operators, the news has to be encouraging. Despite industry headwinds, the odds are in your favor.
