Generations of New Yorkers have observed inflation via two everyday staples: pizza slices and subway rides. In an economic phenomenon dubbed the “pizza principle,” the price of each—slices and subway fares—have moved in lock step for decades.
It will surprise few pizzeria operators to learn that the price of an NYC slice is suddenly inflating faster than subway fares. New analysis from The Gothamist comes as New York City’s MTA is preparing to raise the base subway fare from $2.90 to $3 in early January. According to The Gothamist’s Liam Quigley, the cost of an average NYC slice is either approaching or exceeding $4. In other words, the outlet found that pizza inflation has significantly outpaced fare increases, especially since the pandemic.
One of the first known mentions of the “pizza principle” or “pizza-subway connection,” as it’s sometimes called, appeared in the New York Times in 1985. Back then, a writer was horrified that slices and Subway rides had inflated to—wait for it—90 cents.
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Historically, The Gothamist concurs, the two prices stayed remarkably close. In 2014, for example, the average slice cost about $2.54, just a few cents more than the $2.50 subway fare. The great Giovanni Lanzo, who has run Luigi’s Pizza in Park Slope since 1973, told The Gothamist that the relationship was visible even then.
“I never thought I’d see pizza slices hit a dollar,” Lanzo lamented. “Now all these places are selling them for $5. Ridiculous.”
Lanzo recalled charging 30 cents for a slice—which came with a free Coke, no less—when the subway fare was 35 cents. He recalled later selling slices for 40 cents when fares were 50 cents, and pricing slices at $1.75 around the year 2000 when a ride cost $1.50.
Today, The Gothamist reports that the median price of a plain slice is roughly $3.81, with many well-known shops charging $4 or more. (A cheese slice at upstart Ceres Pizza will allegedly run you $6). Even neighborhood pizzerias in less central areas have raised prices faster than transit fares. Tommy’s Pizza in Throgs Neck, for instance, went from $3 a slice in 2023 to $3.50 today—well above the cost of a subway ride. Joe’s Pizza in the West Village, The Gothamist reported, has risen from $2.75 to $4 in the past decade.
Amusingly, the divergence was noted by MTA Chair Janno Lieber at a recent board meeting. In fact, Lieber displayed a keen sense of New York City’s pizza scene in his comments.
“I don’t know what the pizza principle would dictate at this point because folks have told me that we’re less than a slice in many cases,” he said. “Certainly at Totonno’s or some of the other places, great Brooklyn pizzerias that I favor, the slice has gone north of three [dollars].”
If anything, some say, the MTA has shown restraint by not raising subway fares higher than $3. Of course, pizzeria operators face a much harsher reality than transit officials. There will be no bailouts for corner slice shops that fail to raise their prices in accordance with the cost of goods.
Unlike public transportation, independent pizza operators are fully exposed to rising labor costs, higher rents and more expensive ingredients. Perhaps the once-reliable pizza-to-fare ratio is on its way to becoming more of a historical curiosity than a present-day reality.
